Context:

• The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has released the 20th Electric Power Survey (EPS) report, under which the National Electricity Plan (Generation Adequacy) for 2026–27 to 2035–36 has been presented.

According to the report:

• Due to rising demand and the rapid expansion of renewable energy (RE), a major transformation in India’s power system is expected over the next decade.
• Power Demand Growth: Between FY 2024–25 and 2035–36, India’s peak electricity demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.58%. During the same period, total electricity energy requirement is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.41%.
• Projected Demand by 2035–36: As per estimates, India’s peak electricity demand may reach 459 GW, while total electricity requirement is expected to rise to 3,365 Billion Units (BU).

Capacity Expansion Estimates:

• Installed electricity capacity is expected to increase from about 520 GW (as of 31 January 2026) to 1,121 GW by 2035–36. This growth is necessary to meet rising demand. As per the generation planning study, solar energy will dominate the capacity mix.

Capacity Mix by 2035–36 :

• Solar energy, with 509 GW, will be the largest contributor to the power system, reflecting India’s strong push toward renewable energy.

Share of Solar PV in Energy Mix:

• Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity will play a major role in India’s energy transition, contributing about 45% (509 GW) of total installed capacity by 2035–36. Coal will remain the second-largest source at 28% (315 GW). Wind energy will contribute 14% (155 GW) and large hydro 7% (77 GW).

Non-Fossil Fuel Share:

• Non-fossil fuel-based capacity will reach about 786 GW (70%), indicating a decisive shift toward clean energy. The combined contribution of nuclear, gas, and biomass will remain relatively limited. This reinforces India’s commitment to renewable energy.

Expert Concern: Vibhuti Garg

• According to Vibhuti Garg, South Asia Director at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), efficient utilization of power is more important than mere capacity addition. Currently, over 37 GW of renewable capacity remains unutilized, highlighting gaps in planning, integration, and grid infrastructure. He emphasized strengthening transmission infrastructure and aligning it with demand centers.

Coal to Remain Dominant:

• Despite rapid growth in renewable capacity, coal will continue to dominate electricity generation due to its role in providing reliable baseload supply. By 2035–36, total generation will reach 3,596 BU, with coal contributing 51% (1,819 BU). More than half of total generation will still come from coal during the transition period.

Power Generation Mix by 2035–36:

Demand Growth Outlook:

• Net electricity generation will increase from 1,725 BU in 2024–25 to about 3,450 BU by 2035–36, nearly doubling. This growth is driven by economic expansion, urbanization, electrification, data centers, and green hydrogen. Coal-lignite share will decline from 64% to 49%, while non-fossil share will increase from 34% to 49%.

Investment, Expansion and Storage:

• Union Power Secretary Pankaj Agarwal stated at the India Power Summit on March 19 that about $2.2 trillion investment will be required in the power sector over the next two decades.

Study Objective:

• The study identifies the least-cost expansion pathway between 2026–27 and 2035–36, keeping in view the target of 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030. It aims to minimize overall system cost, including capital and operational costs, while ensuring technical compliance and reliable demand fulfillment.
• According to the study, India will require about 174 GW / 888 GWh of energy storage capacity by 2035–36, including 80 GW / 321 GWh Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and 94 GW / 567 GWh Pumped Storage Plants (PSP).