The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, officially expired on 5 February. With its expiry, an era of formal, legally binding constraints on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals has come to an end. This development marks a major setback for global nuclear arms control and has far-reaching implications for strategic stability, non-proliferation efforts, and countries like India, which operate in an increasingly complex nuclear environment.

Background of New START

New START emerged from a phase of diplomatic “reset” between Washington and Moscow in the late 2000s. It entered into force on 5 February 2011, replacing earlier Cold War–era arms control frameworks. The treaty placed verifiable limits on strategic offensive nuclear weapons of both sides.

Key provisions of New START included:

• A cap of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads for each side.
• Limits on deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers.
• A robust verification regime, including 18 on-site inspections per year, mandatory data exchanges, and a bilateral consultative commission to resolve disputes.

These measures enhanced transparency, predictability, and mutual confidence, reducing the risks of miscalculation and unintended escalation.

Why New START Collapsed

Despite its importance, New START remained under constant strain.

• Russia argued that U.S. missile defence systems undermined strategic balance, potentially weakening the principle of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
• The United States expressed concerns over Russia’s and its own development of conventional prompt global strike systems, which blur the line between nuclear and non-nuclear weapons.

Technological advancements further complicated matters. Russia unveiled new strategic systems such as the Sarmat heavy ICBM and Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, which were brought under New START limits after U.S. insistence. However, other advanced systems like the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone and Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile remained outside the treaty’s technical scope.

Originally set to expire in 2021, the treaty received a one-time five-year extension until 5 February 2026. However, after the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, Russia announced in February 2023 that it was suspending participation, citing hostile Western actions and the impossibility of inspections. The U.S. soon followed suit in practice, rendering the treaty ineffective even before its formal expiry.

Global Consequences

For the first time since 1972, there are now no legally binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the U.S. and Russia. Formal verification mechanisms have ceased, forcing both sides to rely on satellite imagery and unilateral intelligence, which are more prone to errors and politicisation.

Additionally, modern warfare has blurred distinctions between nuclear and non-nuclear strategic systems. Cyberattacks, space-based assets, and hypersonic weapons can threaten nuclear command and control without crossing the nuclear threshold, increasing instability. Analysts highlight that the loss of predictability and transparency is more dangerous than the mere numerical increase in warheads.

The expiry of New START also weakens prospects for expanding arms control to include China and other nuclear powers.

• The U.S. argues it should not remain constrained while China expands its arsenal.
• Russia claims NATO’s combined capabilities justify its refusal to accept limits.
• China maintains that its arsenal is much smaller and that joining U.S.–Russia style disarmament frameworks is neither fair nor reasonable at present.

Implications for India

For India, the collapse of New START has indirect but significant strategic implications:

1. Erosion of Global Arms Control Norms

India has traditionally supported global nuclear restraint and credible deterrence. The weakening of arms control regimes undermines strategic stability worldwide, including in Asia.

2. Impact on Asia-Pacific Security

A less constrained U.S.–Russia environment may accelerate nuclear modernisation globally, influencing China’s nuclear posture. This, in turn, affects India’s strategic calculations vis-à-vis China.

3. Challenges to Non-Proliferation

The dilution of arms control makes it harder to strengthen global non-proliferation frameworks, complicating India’s advocacy for responsible nuclear behaviour.

4. Strategic Autonomy and Deterrence

India may need to place greater emphasis on credible minimum deterrence, survivability, and command-and-control resilience in a more unpredictable nuclear order.

Way Forward

Experts argue that near-term solutions may lie in incremental measures rather than comprehensive treaties. These include restoring basic transparency between the U.S. and Russia, standardising definitions among the P5 nuclear states, and strengthening confidence-building tools such as hotlines, launch notifications, and fissile material security.

Conclusion

The expiry of New START marks a critical turning point in global nuclear governance. While it does not immediately trigger an arms race, it removes vital guardrails that ensured transparency and stability. For India, this evolving strategic landscape underscores the importance of diplomatic engagement, regional stability, and sustained commitment to responsible nuclear policy in an increasingly uncertain world order.