Reference:

• The National Statistical Office (NSO), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), has released the Provisional Estimates (PE) of Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25) along with the quarterly estimates of GDP for the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY25 and its expenditure components at constant (2011-12) and current prices.

Key Highlights:

• For FY 2024-25, real GDP growth is estimated at 6.5%, while nominal GDP has seen a growth rate of 9.8%.
• In the fourth quarter (Q4) of FY 2024-25, real and nominal GDP are estimated to have grown by 7.4% and 10.8%, respectively.
• The manufacturing sector is estimated to grow by 9.4%, followed by Public Administration, Defence & Other Services at 8.9%, and Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services at 7.2% for the full fiscal year.

In Q4 of FY 2024-25:

• • Manufacturing sector grew by 10.8%
  • Public Administration, Defence & Other Services grew by 8.7%
  • Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services grew by 7.8%
• The primary sector registered a 4.4% growth, compared to 2.7% in the previous financial year.
• In Q4 of FY 2024-25, the primary sector witnessed 5.0% growth, compared to 0.8% in Q4 of the previous year.
• Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) grew by 7.2% in FY 2024-25, compared to 5.6% in the previous year.
• Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) recorded a 7.1% growth in FY 2024-25 and 9.4% growth in Q4 of the same year.

I. Annual Estimates and Growth Rates:

• Real GDP at constant prices for FY 2024-25 is estimated at ₹187.97 lakh crore, up from ₹176.51 lakh crore in FY 2023-24 (First Revised Estimate - FRE), indicating a 6.5% growth.
• Nominal GDP at current prices for FY 2024-25 is estimated at ₹330.68 lakh crore, compared to ₹301.23 lakh crore in FY 2023-24, showing a 9.8% growth.
• Real Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated at ₹171.87 lakh crore in FY 2024-25, compared to ₹161.51 lakh crore in FY 2023-24, showing a 6.4% growth.
• Nominal GVA is estimated at ₹300.22 lakh crore in FY 2024-25, compared to ₹274.13 lakh crore in FY 2023-24, registering a 9.5% growth.

II. Quarterly Estimates and Growth Rates:

• Real GDP for Q4 of FY 2024-25 is estimated at ₹51.35 lakh crore, up from ₹47.82 lakh crore in Q4 of FY 2023-24, reflecting a 7.4% growth.
• Nominal GDP for Q4 of FY 2024-25 is estimated at ₹88.18 lakh crore, compared to ₹79.61 lakh crore in Q4 of FY 2023-24, showing a 10.8% growth.
• Real GVA for Q4 of FY 2024-25 is estimated at ₹45.76 lakh crore, compared to ₹42.86 lakh crore in the same quarter of the previous year, showing a 6.8% growth.
• Nominal GVA for Q4 of FY 2024-25 is estimated at ₹79.46 lakh crore, compared to ₹72.51 lakh crore in Q4 of FY 2023-24, reflecting a 9.6% growth.

Sectors Classification:

• Primary Sector: Agriculture, livestock, forestry & fishing, and mining & quarrying
• Secondary Sector: Manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply, other utility services, and construction
• Tertiary Sector: Trade, hotels, transport, communication & broadcasting services, financial, real estate & professional services, public administration, defence & other services

III. Methodology and Key Data Sources:

• The Provisional Estimates (PE) of annual GDP and quarterly GDP estimates are compiled using the benchmark-indicator method, i.e., based on available data for the previous year (2023-24) and relevant indicators reflecting sectoral performance.
• The Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of annual GDP for FY 2024-25 were released on 28 February 2025.
• These estimates incorporate information on sector-specific indicators for the January-March quarter (Q4) and revised indicators for earlier quarters of FY 2024-25.
• Sectoral estimates are compiled using data available up to 27 May 2025, including:

1. Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
2. Quarterly financial results of listed companies for Q4 FY25
3. Second advance estimates of crop production for FY25
4. Production estimates of major livestock products
5. Fish production
6. Production of coal, crude oil, natural gas, cement, and steel consumption
7. Railway freight and passenger kilometers
8. Air passenger and cargo traffic
9. Cargo handled at major and minor ports
10. Commercial vehicle sales
11. Bank deposits and credit
12. Premium income from life and non-life insurance companies in FY25
13. Central and State Government accounts
14. Goods and Services

• Year-on-year growth rates (%) of major indicators used in the estimates are provided in Annexure B.
• Total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes both non-GST and GST revenue.
• For estimation of product taxes at current prices, data from Comptroller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India websites is used.
• For product taxes at constant prices, volume extrapolation using growth in taxable goods and services is used.
• Central product subsidies at current prices for FY 2024-25 were estimated using revised provisions for major subsidies like food, urea, petroleum, and nutrient-based subsidies.
• State product subsidies at current prices were compiled using data on total subsidy expenditure by states in FY 2024-25.
• Improved data coverage and revisions in input data by source agencies may lead to future revisions of these estimates.
• As per the release calendar, estimates are subject to revision over time due to the above reasons. Users are advised to consider these factors while interpreting the data.
• The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the April-June quarter (Q1) of FY 2025-26 will be on 29 August 2025.