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SSC Foundation Batch (Hybrid)
20 May, 2025
Study of Cyclones due to Climate Change
Thu 22 May, 2025
Introduction
Cyclones have long been recognised as one of the most destructive natural hazards on Earth. While these weather systems are natural, their intensity and geographical distribution are increasingly being influenced by climate change. A recent study by ETH Zurich, published in 2025, has highlighted how tropical cyclones will likely become more devastating and frequent in previously unaffected regions if current climate trends continue.
Key Findings of the Study
The ETH Zurich study used advanced climate models and the CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation) platform to assess global cyclone trends. It focused on a high-emission climate scenario called SSP5-8.5, which assumes rapid fossil fuel consumption and radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m² by 2100. This pathway contrasts sharply with the 2.6 W/m² goal of the Paris Agreement.
Cyclone Patterns in SSP5-8.5 Scenario
- Cyclones are predicted to become more frequent and intense, with many affecting higher-latitude regions such as East Asia, Oceania, Central America, and the Caribbean.
- New regions may be exposed, increasing the number of vulnerable ecoregions from 290 to over 490 worldwide.
- The recovery window between major cyclones may decrease significantly (from 19 years to 12 years in resilient zones).
Impact on Mangroves and Coastal Ecosystems
A follow-up study highlighted that up to 56% of global mangroves could be at high to severe risk by 2100:
- Southeast Asia is the most vulnerable, with up to 78% of its mangroves threatened.
- Mangroves are vital for carbon sequestration, coastal protection, and biodiversity.
Understanding Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
SSP Scenario Description
SSP2-4.5 Moderate climate policies, mid-range emission
SSP3-7.0 Fragmented world with little environmental regulation
SSP5-8.5 Fossil-fuel-intensive development and high emissions
Under SSP5-8.5, current warming trends could push cyclone belts away from the equator, altering weather patterns globally and risking irreversible ecosystem changes.
Global Cyclone Naming Regions
| Region | Responsible Agency | Example Names |
| North Atlantic | National Hurricane Center (USA) | Katrina, Sandy |
| Eastern North Pacific | National Hurricane Center (USA) | Patricia, Dora |
| Western North Pacific | JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) | Haiyan, Goni |
| North Indian Ocean | IMD (India Meteorological Department) | Fani, Amphan |
| South-West Indian Ocean | Meteo-France La Réunion | Idai, Kenneth |
| Australian Region | Australian Bureau of Meteorology | Yasi, Debbie |
| South Pacific | Fiji Meteorological Service | Winston, Pam |
Cyclone Monitoring and Prediction Organisations
| Organisation | Role & Region | Functions |
| IMD (India Meteorological Department) | North Indian Ocean | Forecasts, tracks, and names cyclones in Bay of Bengal & Arabian Sea |
| RSMCs (Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres) | Global | Provide regional forecasts, coordinated by WMO |
| NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) | US & Atlantic | Monitors hurricanes and provides disaster response |
| JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) | West Pacific | Responsible for naming and forecasting in the region |
| WMO (World Meteorological Organization) | Global | Coordinates naming and forecasting guidelines |
Policy Implications and Way Forward
- Policymakers must incorporate recovery time and ecosystem resilience in disaster planning.
- Mangrove protection is crucial to mitigate future cyclone impacts. Conservation and restoration must be prioritised.
- Emission reductions must be accelerated to avoid the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
- Urban planning and insurance models must consider shifting cyclone belts and increased frequency.